Well, the big news today, after the South Carolina Blow out and the Florida Dog and Pony Show is that Edwards drops out of the race is that Edwards is dropping out of the race. As I write this, the message that he WILL drop out is out there but he hasn’t made the speech yet. So I have a little time to put on my Wizard of S hat and make some prognostications.

I hear on TV that there is a question about where Edwards’ supporters go. They are still playing the racial spin about SC’s vote, how Obama won a huge number of black voters, while the white vote was split between Clinton and Edwards (and the extension, that this is the reason that Obama won.) Race has become an issue, and in this sense, I agree with both Obama AND Bill Clinton, that it is a media-created issue. They want a story, and they are going to push it until it actually becomes the perceptions of those who are exposed to it.

But there is one aspect that isn’t really being covered in the media which I think is perhaps more important: A vote for Edwards may have been a vote against Clinton. It is very possible that a lot of southern whites, who attend church at a higher rate than northern whites may have voted for Edwards because they didn’t want to vote for the OTHER white candidate. Church goers, who tend to be more socially conservative, generally hate Hillary Clinton and the Clinton’s in general. God could come down and say that Hillary was its daughter, and maybe then, these people would vote for Hillary, but anything short of that, I have a real doubt.

That means, of course, that there is the possibility that no matter who is running, these folks will NEVER vote for Clinton. Clinton represents that old establishment, which New Hampshire can get behind (because let’s face it, how radical are they in New Hampshire?) and the machinery (Harry Reid) in NV can get behind. But the anti-establishment vote, which is brewing in this country, the vote of those who want anyone but Clinton will NEVER vote for her. If race plays ANY role in future votes, it will serve to keep many of the racists who won’t vote for Obama from even going to the polls. It doesn’t mean they will go to Clinton.

I can’t see in my crystal ball whether Edwards will endorse anyone, but I think if he did, he will endorse Obama, because as he has repeatedly said “Obama and I are change agents, Clinton is status quo.” His speech after Iowa was that the voters have rejected the status quo, by which he meant Clinton. Etc etc etc. He was setting himself up, even at that point to be a possible VP candidate, if he is interested, but I really doubt that he would want to be the VP of Clinton (that would be 2004 all over again for him.) If he is setting himself up as a VP candidate, it will be for Obama, and so I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he not only dropped out, but if he endorsed Obama at the same time.

One more thing to consider that leads me to say the above: If he doesn’t take a spot in the government, his hopes of being president, of working for the working people of the country, etc etc… that’s all over. He will be labeled a two time loser, and will never really have another chance to be a viable candidate. He will become a footnote in History, the fellow who twice ran for President, once for Vice President, and lost all three times. But then again, if he endorsed Obama and told all the economic populists to go vote for Obama on Feb 5, that will be a huge boost for Obama, whose campaign has been inspiring and wildly popular among the youth, but lacking a bit of substance with the Dem Base. And then, that would be a HUGE political favor which would require repayment. He would make a great addition to the Obama campaign, not so big an addition to Clinton (who has her own economic message, which is actually just more of Clintonomics that gave our economy 6 years of prosperity, a budget surplus and etc…) I would NOT be suprised if he took the opportunity of this huge decisions, which will essentially end his political career, to make the endorsement which will pretty much guarantee him the VP spot and another opportunity to run again in 8 years. If he is interested in remaining a politician, it is something he HAS to do.

You heard it here first. History, don’t let the Wizard of S down!

W Doc Stodden